Civic communities or armed forces as first line of defence?

This chapter scrutinizes Russia’s most likely course of action towards NATO. Despite NATO’s preparations for a total war against its neighbor, is Russia more of a peace-time challenge than a war-time challenge? To find out, the chapter scrutinizes Russia’s room for manoeuvre, and Russia’s most likely lines of operations in the years ahead. The analysis builds on theory from Sun Tzu and Clausewitz: avoid your opponents’ strength; protect your vulnerabilities; strike opponents where they are most vulnerable; and prevent citizens in opposing communities to unite with their governments and armed forces. The findings suggest that Russia will stay below the threshold of war. Rather than waging war on NATO terms, Russia will emphasize more attainable targets inside European communities. For the world’s mightiest alliance, the member states’ civic communities are NATO first line of defence.