ABSTRACT
Over the past four to five decades, theories of change have been recognised as playing an important role in the design and evaluation of development interventions, and they have been assimilated, together with results-based management, into the public sector in the interests of accountability and good governance. However, in the context of increasingly complex development challenges, the need for systems-oriented theories of change has become critical. The adoption of weak, linear models of theories of change, without sufficient adaptation to the complexity challenge and the macro-planning requirements of the state, offers little value in addressing the magnitude of public-sector development challenges. Although offering some semblance of pathways to change, they remain incomplete and of limited use for planning, evaluation, and the achievement of systems-level change. Adopting a contextually appropriate systems perspective around the design, implementation, and evaluation of results is necessary if theories of change are to be useful tools in state planning and development.
