ABSTRACT
The theory of change implicit in the founding purpose of the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) is that funding for effectiveness evidence would lead to its production, the evidence produced would be relevant, syntheses and evidence platforms would help improve access, access would increase use which would result in more effective policies and programmes. This essay proposes that, during its 15 years of existence, 3ie has used the balloon-squeezing approach to the theory of change. If the air in the balloon represents the obstacles to using evidence, then squeezing the balloon is akin to testing underlying hypotheses. Over the years 3ie has tested subsequent hypotheses by contributing to the increased production of development evidence, the improved relevance of the evidence, as well as improved access. The essay argues that these are necessary but not sufficient conditions to make evidence use the default in international development work. 3ie has realized that for access to lead to increased use, we need to invest in long-term partnerships with international development organizations and governments, in the local capacity to produce, translate, and use evidence, and in understanding and improving institutional evidence cultures and incentives. The theory of change and strategy is being updated accordingly.
