Introduction

This chapter presents three scenarios on the prospects for Norwegian-Russian cooperation in the Barents Sea. The first scenario - called "After You, Sir" - petroleum development in the Barents Sea region is a respectful and cooperative enterprise between Norway and Russia. The second scenario - "Parallel Play, Not Only for Children" - is centered on the combination of high oil and gas prices and non-cooperative relations between Norway and Russia in times of growing energy demand and oil/gas prices. The third scenario - "Let's Dance, but Where Is the Music?" - envisages a future where Russia and Norway cooperate on the development of a few big petroleum projects, but broader development is hindered by a strict and effective global climate regime that reduces profits from the sale of oil and gas and makes smaller Arctic fields commercially unviable.