ABSTRACT
Ship maneuverability plays an important role in ship risk avoidance and directly affects the evaluation of collision risk. However, the current risk evaluation methods often ignore the important factor of ship maneuverability. Therefore, a collision risk evaluation method considering ship collision avoidance ability is proposed in this paper. The method combines the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, the NOMOTO maneuvering motion equation, the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG rules) and the ship domain intrusion measurement model to establish two risk evaluation indicators related to the latest rudder application time and the safety avoidance Angle set, i.e., Avoidance Difficulty (AD) and Avoidance Time Urgency (ATU). Then, the criterion Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method is used to determine the weight of the two indicators. Finally, the method proposed in this paper is used to identify the risk of ships in the offshore waters of Ningbo Zhoushan port area. Risk comparison experiments are conducted by comparing with Collision Risk Index (CRI) method and domain-based method. The results show that the method not only takes into account the differences in maneuverability of different ships, but also focuses on the relative movement trend between ships in the risk evaluation, which can realize the risk evaluation more reasonably.
