ABSTRACT
This study examines the impact of climate change on slope stability and runoff in the Indian Himalayan region Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, India, using projected temperature and precipitation data under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. An integrated seepage and slope stability analysis is conducted using finite element-based numerical modelling. The study considers average monthly temperature and precipitation data for five different years, spanning from 1970 to 2090, with analyses conducted at 30-year intervals. Historical datasets for 1970 and 2000 and projected data for 2030, 2060, and 2090 are used. The analysis of projected climate data reveals a trend of increasing average temperatures and rainfall, along with declining snowfall, with more pronounced changes under the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 4.5. The results indicate that slope failure occurs earlier, and runoff volumes increase significantly under both the scenarios. From 1970 to 2090, the runoff under RCP 8.5 is observed 3.5 times higher than under RCP 4.5, and that the slope failure occurs 46 days earlier for the former case.
