ABSTRACT
Induced seismicity resulting from underground mining operations constitutes a significant threat both to the safety of mine workers-due to the potential occurrence of rock bursts, and to public safety, due to the effects of vibrations caused in the surface environment by seismic phenomena. These vibrations can pose a threat to infrastructure, including damage to buildings, roads and transmission networks. Additionally, they can negatively affect the health and well-being of residents in mining areas, causing stress and a sense of danger. Seismic hazard forecasting enables appropriate measures to be taken to reduce the probability of a seismic event. As previous studies have shown one of the key factors influencing the magnitude and characteristics of seismic events is the depth at which mining operations are carried out. The paper presents the results of a study on the possibility of prediction of changes in induced seismic activity based on changes in the depth of mining operations. The research utilized archival data from selected mines located in Poland, in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, taking into account mining history and recorded seismic events. Prognostic models were developed and applied to forecast seismic activity in the studied areas. The research showed that the proposed forecasting method can be a valuable tool for supporting seismic risk management in mining planning.
