ABSTRACT
A quadrangular partnership of Japan, the United States, Australia, and India is an ambitious initiative to transform international relations in Asia. It is aspirational, building on ideas proposed by Abe Shinzo. If the 2021 AUKUS agreement with the United Kingdom and the United States to build nuclear submarines for Australia, warmly supported by Japan, demonstrated that three states were openly focused on defending against China, the Quad played down this goal for India’s sake. Nontraditional security is in the forefront, but economics and identity matter too. This is an effort to establish a framework of security partners backed by commensurate national identity compatibility to counter China’s expansionism and support continued US leadership in the Indo-Pacific. There is talk of a Quad-Plus with issue-based members and an expansive outlook on the geographical range of Asia’s dynamism. Xi Jinping’s “wolf warrior” aggression in 2019–20—threats and sanctions targeted at Australia for daring to defy China and a military attack against India—drove the two most recalcitrant states to appreciate the need for the Quad, just as US leadership awakened to its strategic urgency. The message delivered by the Quad is not one of confrontation but one of preparedness to counter China while the door to China is left open. Yet few expected China to make that possible.
