ABSTRACT

Nine triangles, shaped by three driving forces, tell a story of transition following the Cold War and of the emergence of a post-transitional order. The three driving forces evolved over three decades: the socialist legacy led not only to sharp separation before China gained dominance, limiting maneuvering but also to emboldening Russia; Koreans driven by Koreanness strove hard to rally others before falling back to their ally in the face of threatening behavior, including that of China; and Japan experimented with autonomous initiatives, but in the face of China redoubled ties to its ally with appeals for broadening the coalition. In place of multiple drivers of triangularity, two overwhelming forces were left. Avoiding blocs and trying to cross boundaries gave way to consolidating triangles and aspiring to build beyond them. Scant concern about vulnerability of one’s economy had boosted wide-ranging triangularity, and post-Cold War national identity liberation had provided a huge stimulus, but accelerating security threats narrowed this quest and drove it in the direction of bipolarity. A transition accelerated from the era of multidirectional triangularity to a new era of triangularity under the rubric of bipolarity.