ABSTRACT
The ROK-China-US triangle is the principal test of regional transformation in the Indo-Pacific. China strives to turn South Korea away from the United States, treating it as the weak link in the alliance system. The United States seeks to reinforce the South’s role in its camp, endorsing a US-led multilateral framework. Seoul has wavered, beefing up the alliance but not committing to regional alliance aspirations, at times reassuring Beijing of reluctance to choose sides. Such hedging grows increasingly untenable. If the United States was cautious about pressing it to choose, China is losing patience, warning about alliance strengthening, anti-Chinese public opinion, and many red lines that Seoul must not cross to avoid unprecedented retaliation. Three variables matter: South Korea’s priority for reunification, dependent on China, reinforced by rising economic ties; China’s confidence that it can pressure the South, given its economic clout and ties to the North; and the state of Sino-US relations, which affect China’s policies toward both North and South Korea. Seoul leans toward the United States, given their vital alliance and fear of China tightening the screws of economic vulnerability. It shares values with the United States, and worries about Sinocentrism, memories of which are deeply imprinted, and about being targeted by “wolf warrior” behavior. In 2022, a new conservative president in the face of a polarizing war in Ukraine tipped the balance more decisively to the US-ROK alliance.
