ABSTRACT

This chapter details an epidemiological-economic model which represents a compilation of the SIR (Susceptible – Infectious/Infected – Removed/Recovered) epidemiological model proposed by Kermack and McKendrick and the neoclassical model of economic growth proposed by Solow. The original SIR model ignores restrictions imposed on social and economic life to contain the spread of an epidemic, and economic consequences of the epidemic and of those restrictions imposed to contain its spread. The original SIR model does not include restrictions imposed on social and economic activity in response to the spread of an epidemic. For this reason, an analysis of the process of spread and subsidence of an epidemic was made using the SIR model as modified by Barwolff. Barwolff assumes that governments impose restrictions on social and economic life when an epidemic begins to spread out of control. Barwolff also assumes that the more restrictive lockdown is introduced, the slower is the pace of epidemic spread.