ABSTRACT
This chapter presents our analyses of the constituency-level outcomes in the 1983 election. We begin by drawing attention to some caveats that need to be made in undertaking aggregate data analysis of this kind. Secondly, we look at regional variations in party support and at the effects of party position in 1979 upon vote change between 1979 and 1983. Thirdly, we analyze the extent to which spatial variations in levels of party support may be attributed to the social and economic characteristics of different constituencies. Data extracted from the 1981 Census are used to construct models of the bases of party support in 1983, as well as change in support since 1979. Fourthly, we analyse the pattern of changes in party support in the English metropolitan counties during the actual campaign - from the district council elections on 5 May 1983 to the general election only five weeks later - particularly those factors that insulated Labour to some extent from its worst vote losses. A similar analysis for Greater London compares changes between the London Borough Council elections of 6 May 1982 and the 1983 general election. Finally, we examine some factors associated with particular contests in order to ascertain whether these had any effects upon party support that were additional to those of the social and economic composition of the constituencies themselves.
