ABSTRACT
This study examines the future trajectories of the European Union’s foreign and security policy (EUFSP) under different combination of global and regional geopolitical factors. It identifies three possible scenarios: ‘Reformed EU’, where deeper integration enhances the EU’s capability amid intense global competition; ‘Adjusted EU’, which maintains a balance between internal improvements and dependence on the US and multilateral frameworks; and ‘Fractured EU’, marked by weakened cohesion and diminished influence due to high multipolar competition and intra-EU contestation. The analysis reveals that the EU’s role as a relational power is heavily influenced by its ability to adapt to external pressures and internal dynamics.
