ABSTRACT
For Taiwanese decision-makers, the changing nuclear landscape is of secondary importance to the looming threat of Chinese aggression or invasion. Taiwan’s adoption of new technologies has taken place under the backdrop of preparations to fight a conventional war. In response to the Chinese military’s successful modernisation efforts, the Taiwanese government has responded by procuring conventional long-range precision strike capabilities, missile defences and hardened shelters for strategic sites. The key nuclear threat is indirect, namely the prospect of the PRC using nuclear threats to deter the United States from intervening on Taiwan’s side in the event of a cross-Strait war. Taiwan’s approach to the return of “great power competition” is the pursuit of closer ties with the United States and advertising its importance to US supply chain security, especially for semi-conductors. The “global nuclear order” provides little solace for Taiwan’s leaders: although Taiwan adheres to international norms and treaties, strengthening normative and legal structures would not meaningfully increase Taiwan’s security. Although it stands at odds with Taiwan’s increasingly liberal domestic politics, Taiwan’s decision-makers see no other option than to prepare their country for a major conventional war.
