ABSTRACT
The approach of Iranian policy elites to the global nuclear order – which they see as Western-designed and Western-led – has been defined by defiance and resistance, but also ultimately hedging. In the Third Nuclear Age, Iranian security thinking will be dominated by the military technological sophistication of its two main nuclear-armed adversaries, Israel and the United States. Continuity rather than change best describes Iran’s approach to changes in the global nuclear order, especially technological change, and the re-emergence of great power competition. While portraying themselves as traditionally pro-disarmament advocates, Iranian leaders continue to pursue a strategy of nuclear latency. At the same time, the re-emergence of great power competition has given Iran a wider degree of flexibility, which has allowed the Islamic Republic to adopt a more confrontational attitude with the international community over its nuclear ambitions when needed. At the moment, Iran appears to be choosing a conventional deterrent over a potential nuclear one. Despite its rivals being two nuclear armed states, hedging is a costly but effective strategy.
