ABSTRACT
Intelligence failure is typically defined by case studies in which the analyst’s inability to identify and convey a critical piece of information led to a real or potential deadly attack by an adversary. Efforts to place “strategic warning” at the forefront of analysis are based on a belief that intelligence success and failure must be understood within this context. However, none of this is representative of the vast majority of work performed by most analysts in their careers, who are instead preoccupied by complex, multilayered issues like technological change, economic growth or regime stability. Intelligence failure for them results from a lack of creativity and imagination – an inability to develop their expertise and apply their empathy.
