ABSTRACT
The analytic tradecraft standards promulgated by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence are the yardstick for measuring the progress of the US Intelligence Community’s efforts to promote a common vision for the profession. When we apply these standards to products from the earliest years of the Intelligence Community, a time when expertise defined institutions and the analysts had more freedom to display their talent, the results are glaring. This case study examines a paper written by an expert on racism in America and Africa, who made some rather accurate predictions about the future of apartheid in South Africa. However, the paper does not comply with any tradecraft standards and it is doubtful the author would have agreed to work for today’s institutions, pointing to a fundamental problem with the standards and the scientific paradigm they represent.
