ABSTRACT
This chapter develops the theoretical framework for the analysis of the electoral consequences of Third Way welfare state reforms. It begins with an outline of social democracy’s transformation under the Third Way, and the background to this transformation. Then, it theorises the role of social policy in the formation of the social democratic core constituency’s partisan alignment; delineates the potential dealignment that is risked by social democracy if it engages in policy change that goes against the core constituency’s political preferences; and conceptualises the social democratic core constituency in terms of a class framework. It continues with a discussion of the effect of electoral systems and the role of particular competitor parties for the electoral fortunes of Third Way social democrats. The chapter concludes with a discussion on the suspected decline of class voting as the most obvious rival to the explanation presented in this book.
