ABSTRACT
The Swedish social democratic party (Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti, sap) is often seen as a prototypical social democratic party. Due to its electoral strength, the sap was the dominant Swedish party in the 20th century, with long and often uninterrupted incumbencies allowing the party to realise its ambitious social policy objectives (e.g. Svensson 1994; Arter 1999a; 2003; Immergut 2002). Similarly, the Swedish welfare state is regarded as the closest match to Esping-Andersen’s ideal type of social democratic welfare state model (1990), with its generous universal social security schemes leading to an extraordinary degree of decommodification (Korpi & Palme 1998).
This chapter looks at the electoral prospects of a social democratic party that has not transformed itself under a Third Way agenda, but has implemented more moderate reforms. During the economic crisis in the 1990s, the sap cut welfare benefits and introduced welfare reforms, but was able to retain its traditional attachment to social democratic values (Anderson & Meyer 2004: 156; Bonoli 2004: 208). When the crisis was over, it withdrew some of the reforms. Other reforms were not part of a path-breaking policy change under a Third Way label, but largely in line with the social policy legacy of Swedish social democracy, as almps and workfare elements have always existed (Hort 2001). Under these conditions, I would expect social democrats to retain a large proportion of their core constituents and not experience a dealignment or realignment of these voters. The chapter controls for one important rival explanation, the suspected decline of class voting. If the chapter reveals a higher degree and no or only a moderate decline in class voting — understood as backing for the social democrats among the core constituency — the reforms in the three other cases must be regarded as a crucial factor for the changing alignment of core social democratic voters.
