ABSTRACT
The demographic challenge facing the Baltic states is depopulation. We present an analysis of the declining population of the Baltic states. Based on a comparative analysis from 2020 to 2024, we argue that Russia’s geopolitical pressure on the Baltic states is exacerbated by the asymmetry in their demographic and, therefore, defence potential.
The aim of this chapter is to present the main demographic challenges facing each of the Baltic states discussed: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Each is a small state bordering imperial Russia, but the processes of demographic change are unfolding differently in each. Latvia is most vulnerable to depopulation, Estonia is showing a slowdown in negative demographic growth and Lithuania benefits from the largest population of the three countries.
The problem of population ageing significantly impacts the security of every country, generating a range of social, economic and political challenges, each of which is reflected in the population’s sense of security. For analysing depopulation processes in the context of threats to national security, risks and consequences for economic development, the demographic dependency ratio (DDR) of working-age people is crucial. In all three countries, it is very unfavourable.
A new trend influencing the demographic situation in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is the phenomenon of migration, which primarily involves people of Ukrainian and Belarusian origin. This is related to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the increasing oppression of the regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
