ABSTRACT
This chapter critically reassesses the widespread belief that democracy has been in long-term, global decline. While acknowledging recent democratic backsliding and authoritarian assertiveness, the chapter argues that prevailing crisis narratives exaggerate both the depth and duration of democratic erosion. Drawing on global regime data and long-run historical comparisons, the chapter shows that democracy expanded dramatically in the late 20th century, peaked around 2015, and has since experienced a relatively modest downturn. Crucially, the decline has been concentrated in low-quality democracies or consists of autocracies abandoning democratic façades, rather than in democratic regression in long-established democracies. The chapter also interrogates the concept of ‘crisis’, arguing that it is often used in ways that conflate political conflict or institutional strain with genuine regime-threatening situations. To explain the present democratic pessimism, the chapter points to misleading historical analogies, selective memory of the 1990s, and cognitive biases amplified by media dynamics. The chapter concludes that democracy faces real pressures, but that its global trajectory remains far more resilient than alarmist accounts suggest.
