ABSTRACT
Theories of change are fundamental to many efforts to design and evaluate complex interventions. They have benefits but also risks that are often not well understood. Benefits and risks can be better managed with consideration of the social world where interventions occur and where evaluations are constructed. This essay draws on ontological insights to identify practical ways to improve evaluations using theories of change. The essay proposes four characteristics of the social world relevant to this: the future is open and outcomes underdetermined, the future is also structured, the world is dynamic and patterned, but systems emerge and interact in ways that are unpredictable. It also proposes five pragmatic principles for maximising the benefits of using theories of change, while minimising the risks: engage stakeholders, recognise structural and systemic constraints / incorporate systems thinking, iterate the theory of change, be theory led / prioritise theory building, and be humble and curious.
