ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses a set of theoretical expectations which guide the empirical analysis. It emphasizes that the processes generated by potential focusing events are highly context-specific and complex. Both politicization and policy change can result from different causal configurations. The chapter presents theoretical expectations on the factors driving the politicization of gun control after rampage shootings. It discusses with the implications of an event's 'objective' severity for the politicization process, then turns to the role of the mass media as drivers of moral panics and closes with a discussion of party politics and the timing of the event in the electoral cycle. The theoretical expectations should be read as 'baseline expectations', whose precise impact on politicization and policy change may be conditioned by the configuration of the other factors. The two factors of policy change and stability as per political conditions: cohesion of the status quo coalition and the decision hurdles set by the affected country's political and socio-cultural institutions.
