ABSTRACT
This chapter argues that the spectrum—from optimism to pessimism—sheds analytical light on Soviet perceptions of that environment and on Soviet projections concerning future developments. The study of Soviet leadership affairs is considerably less developed than seismology: a Southern Californian might be forgiven a parallel between the subject matter at hand and earthquake prediction. One of the most fundamental issues in American-Soviet relations is Moscow's positive obsession with secrecy, espionage, deception, and insistence in unilateral measures of their own military security. Moscow had a triangular view of its strategic environment in the 1960s and 1970s. The policy consensus and military buildup at home would yield explicit recognition of Soviet superpower status. The Soviet national security leadership and its policies will change. This prediction rests on a variety of arguments, and some evidence has already accumulated of turbulence in national security policy. Soviet economic performance has already placed some elements of national security under pressure for change.
