ABSTRACT
This chapter examines some of the analytic methods involved in calculating energy demand and supply—balances and projections—and what lies behind them. It describes how they can help the planner to identify which types of bioenergy options could fill critical gaps in the energy needs of a nation. In addition to demographic, economic, energy supply, and fuel substitution factors there are various other phenomena that will affect future energy demand and may constrain—or stimulate—energy use growth. Supply changes will in general affect total energy demand in a complex way by changing quantities and prices in the energy market. The share of the total energy supply taken up by different fuels can change over time through interfuel substitution. The effect of proposed development projects in Gaillardia on the energy economy can be treated through extra requirements for petroleum fuel, which are set at a 5 percent increase in petroleum imports over the base case each year after 1990.
