ABSTRACT
The hypothesis that the likelihood of war is increased when the military technology favors the offense is theoretically plausible only on the basis of the rather strong assumption that decision makers correctly perceive the offensive/defensive balance. However, it is perceptions of one's psychological environment that determine decisions, not the 'objective' operational environment. Use of the concept of offensive/defensive balance to refer to a variety of different things has led to a great deal of confusion. The most common use of the concept of the offensive/defensive balance is based on territorial conquest and the defeat of enemy forces. The definition of the offensive/defensive balance by the relative resources that must be expended on the offense in order to overcome the defense can be conceptualized in another way and related to the conception based on territorial conquest. It is important to distinguish the incentive to strike first from other concepts that have also been used to define the offensive/defensive balance.
