It is timely to revisit the Taiwan issue in the context of Taiwan’s evolving domestic and external dynamics. While Taiwan could succeed in navigating a more contested regional strategic environment, thereby maintaining its de facto independence from mainland China, its room for manoeuvre could also narrow as Beijing increases its political, economic and military pressure on the island. Over the coming years, cross-Strait affairs will thus re-emerge as one of the Asia-Pacific ‘flashpoints’ with potentially serious consequences for regional stability and security. Yet it is important to analyse Taiwan’s future not simply as the result of strategic choices made in Beijing or Washington but rather to consider Taiwan as an independent foreign policy actor in its own right, influenced by domestic and external factors.