ABSTRACT
The paper presents the results of the reliability analysis of one high pressure boiler of a Petrochemical Company (COPENE Petroquímica do Nordeste S.A.). The work was jointly performed by the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ) and COPENE. The objective of the analysis was to estimate the probability of a boiler explosion occurring within the period of two scheduled plant shutdowns. We developed fault trees for each operational state of the boiler and calculated the probability of explosion using the minimal cut sets. Several suggestions to improve the boiler reliability were formulated. The probability of explosion of any magnitude is much greater during shutdown or emergency shutdown (trip) than during the period of normal operation. Nevertheless, we must bear in mind that the duration of either of those operational phases is much shorter than the normal operation state. Overall, it was found that the most effective measure to improve system reliability is to install photocells to command the trip of the boiler.
