ABSTRACT

Risk is understood to be a function of probability and consequence. Up until the 1980s, the study of risk was dominated in the West by scientists, engineers, economists, and decision analysts. Their views were overwhelmingly influenced by a rational actor paradigm (RAP) (Jaeger et al. 2001, pp. 19-22), in which risk is an objective condition that can be understood from a rational and individual perspective. From this standpoint, determining risk means determining the probability of an event and multiplying it by the

CONTENTS

5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 103 5.2 International Risk Governance Council Framework ............................ 106

5.2.1 Phases of Risk Governance .......................................................... 107 5.2.1.1 Preassessment Phase ...................................................... 107 5.2.1.2 Risk Appraisal ................................................................. 107 5.2.1.3 Tolerability and Acceptability Judgment ..................... 108 5.2.1.4 Risk Management ........................................................... 108

5.3 Four Types of Risk: Examples from the Coastal Zone ......................... 109 5.3.1 Simple Risks at the Science-Policy Interface: Shrimp .............. 109 5.3.2 Complex Risks at the Science-Policy Interface: Offshore

Oil and Gas Exploration ................................................................ 110 5.3.3 Uncertain Risks at the Science-Policy Interface: Port Security....112 5.3.4 Ambiguous Risks at the Science-Policy Interface:

Aboriginal Fishing Rights ............................................................ 114 5.4 Discussion and Conclusion ...................................................................... 117 References ............................................................................................................. 121

consequence, usually measured in dollars or operational deficiency. There is an optimism that the data are obtainable and uncontroversial. These calculations loaned themselves to risk prioritization: those events with the highest risk score (probability × consequence) could be identified as the greatest risks and therefore first in need of attention. From this traditional view, risk is largely understood to be a negative concept; specialists seek to identify, segment, and eliminate it.