ABSTRACT
If Atlanta beats Baltimore most of the time, and Baltimore beats Cincinnati most of the time, then it is usually assumed that Atlanta will beat Cincinnati most of the time. If Atlanta has never played Cincinnati, this "form" (racetrack word for summary of past performance) is the only thing the experts have to go on in predicting the winner. If Atlanta goes against "form" and loses to Cincinnati, the prophets will excuse their inaccuracy by saying that in one game any team can win. If Atlanta persists in losing to Cincinnati they may decide that Atlanta has some psychological hang-up about this particular team. Or they may try to convince us of their expertise with more complicated explanations based on relative strengths of defensive and offensive teams, if the sport is football, or of pitching and hitting if the sport is baseball.
