The Air Ministry predicted a thaw in southern England beginning on March 6th, 1947. Reports of air pressure, temperature, wind speed and direction, and cloud, rain, and so on, are constantly being received from a number of stations at ground level, and from ships at sea, by an official attached to the Air Ministry. In addition they probably get some reports from aeroplane crews as to the state of the upper air, and also reports of the movement of small pilot balloons sent up. A meteorologist can make certain predictions with over ninety per cent. The predictions of rain a day ahead when a cyclone is approaching from the Atlantic in normal weather are of this kind. It is equally likely that the unfortunate meteorologists have orders from a superior with no scientific qualifications to give as definite prediction as they can, and never mind if they are sometimes wrong.